I had a Fast Company story come out last week on Houston’s $40m effort to shield itself from the current bear market, and to become less economically reliant on the volatile oil industry. It’s hard to predict how much a plan like this will work, but a new report from the local chamber of commerce (called the Greater Houston Partnership, the organization behind the battle plan) makes the short-term outlook seem far from promising.
From the Houston Chronicle:
The Houston area could lose about 46,000 jobs over the next 12 months as the national recession — coupled with a sudden slump in the all-important energy markets — takes root locally, the Greater Houston Partnership said in its latest economic forecast.
The forecast itself — which, of course, GHP conveniently doesn’t list in its press releases or on its front page — includes one subhead that says, “Houston’s Economic Drivers are Sputtering.” (Hey, at least they’re honest, even if they are burying the truth.) One of the big problems is that, despite some diversification since the early-80s oil slump, Houston has a problem: If the energy markets are in bad shape, so is the city.
So do I feel stupid for writing a mostly-positive story about an area that will be slumping next year? Not really. For one thing, even if Houston hits a rough patch, it will still be among the strongest metro area economies in the U.S. (in other words, in a terrible national economy, it’s among those in “least bad” shape). And the Opportunity Houston plan is a long-term effort to protect the metro area from exactly the sort of problems it’s currently facing. After visiting Houston in October, I came away impressed with their tech tools, their strategy, and most of the GHP leaders I met with. Even if things don’t look great now, Houston has as good a shot as any region at torrid growth once the economy recovers. It may just take five or six years.
Not sure if you saw the the article below or not. You can like or not depending on what your opinion of Joel Kotkin is, but it’s an interesting take.
http://american.com/archive/2008/march-april-magazine-contents/lone-star-rising
Thanks for sending this, AR. I have mixed feelings on Kotkin, and I think the opportunity cities idea is incredibly muddled. But this piece does provide some great historical context on what has made Houston a potential boomtown. We’ll see if it realizes its potential.
It’s extremely difficult for all of us to separate “what I want” from “how things ought to be”. I worked in Houston for a while. I found it to be fairly close to my personal definition of hell, apart from a few highlights like the Houston Grand Opera. But I can respect that the city works for them, and appreciate the “can do” attitude, ambition, and various ways that they have followed the logic of their approach to its inevitable conclusion (e.g., their frontage road system on massive freeways). Houston has found a path to a certain vision of urban success. Just because it’s a path I reject doesn’t make it any less valid or successful.